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 October
20 -
Here in South African horseracing punters are blessed with access to a wealth of local
horseracing information. But one has to say that the line between a blessing and
a curse, much like the line between genius and madness, can often be very fine
indeed.
We have unmatched horseracing form guides, many expert handicappers'
opinions, wall to wall coverage of every race from changing odds to the canter
down to post, and finally we have post-race interviews with the jockeys.
Surely
it would pay to listen to their high-pitched words of wisdom about upcoming
rides?
Here is a common betting mistake: Asking a jockey what his chances are of
winning future races is akin to asking a poker player if he likes his cards, or
better yet what cards he's holding. Jockeys are there to gamble as well, make no
mistake, and if he's any good he won't tell you how strong his hand might be.
On Tuesday I happened to catch the Piere 'Striker' Strydom interview following an early
winner on the same card for the brilliant jockey.
The credulous interviewer asked Strydom if he had any more winners lined up for
that meeting.
The jockey said he'd be very surprised to win any more races that
day. He then went on to register utter shock that punters were backing his horse
Wessex in a later race.
He noticed that the horse had shortened in the market and couldn't work out why
since the horse had little chance (in his opinion) of winning. He advanced
several persuasive arguments based on form and handicapping, and by the end of
it I was convinced Wessex would be better off trotting to the glue factory.
I sprinted to my laptop, went to a UK betting exchange and offered to lay Wessex
at any price. Thankfully others must have heard the interview as well and no one
would take me up on my generous offer at any price as the horse drifted in the
betting.
A couple of hours later Wessex and Strydom sprinted to a facile win.
There was one punter who must have been licking his fingers in anticipation - as
soon as they were no longer reining in the winner of course.
Don't listen to the connections, listen to the market, and better yet listen to
your own analysis because connections lie, markets are fallible, and at the end
of the day your best chance of winning is to go with your own homework!
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- Sun International Strike in 4th Week
- South African Horseracing Preview
- Will the Sri Lankan Sun Wilt the Proteas
- Lion Tamer Tames The Pack at Newmarket
- Exciting Currie Cup Final Ends in Draw
- South African Horse Racing Preview
- Bafana Bafana To Play in London
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