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January 13 - We are going to win the Pick Six horseracing this Saturday at Turffontein. I am
confident of that statement. Will we make money? That's an impossible question
to answer, but a firm 'maybe' you can have right now.
See we're going to take a permutation, also known as a perm but not the same
perm that your great aunt gets every month.
This perm will cost R2,304. You can take a percentage if you're not comfortable
putting down that much loot. If the Pick 6 pays out more than R2,3k we win money
and if it pays out less than we lose money. Simple to understand. But we will
catch it.
LEG 1 - I don't like taking bankers, especially not in maiden plates. So I'm not
sold on NATIONAL LILY (10) alone even though she should win. I'm also adding
BULL CREEK (7) as a little bit of insurance. So 7 and 10.
LEG 2 - The coupling of 1,4,and 7 is very strong here so take the 1 for
starters. I'm also going to add the 2,3 and the 6 to be safe. So 1,2,3,6 for the
second leg.
LEG 3 - This is a tough race to handicap if number 1, CELESTIAL MIST goes
missing. She has the class to win but is carrying the weight to lose, and often
the latter trumps the former. I am not convinced and am going fairly wide in
this race. Take 1,4,5,8,9,10.
LEG 4 - Another race where the best horse, LION TAMER (1), has to carry a
monstrous amount of weight. I am not sold on the favourite, FOUNTAINHEAD (5), at
all and I'm almost tempted to leave him out completely. Definitely include
Strydom's ride (3) and as a roughie put in the 6 as well. So 1,3,5,6 for this
one.
LEG 5 - A very competitive handicap indeed with plenty of horses that have the
credentials to win. I think CASEY'S BLUFF (8) could win this but I am going to
put in all of 1,2,3,4,5,and 8 of course.
LEG 6 - We end with a risk, but it had to come somewhere and we might as well
save it for the end. That way we can tell everyone how close we came to winning
the Pick Six! On a confident and serious note they have to do a lot to beat
FOREST OF DREAMS (1) and the only real danger looks like MINESHAFT (7).
Take
these two nags and you should be fine, so it's 1 and 7 to close out the
permutation.
Numbers:
7x10
1x2x3x6
1x4x5x8x9x10
1x3x5x6
1x2x3x4x5x8
1x7
Cost = R2,304.00
Make sure you check for scratchings on the day and delete those horses from the
perm!
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| | 5/6/2008 11:49:48 AM |
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